Pay to Win? Not in the NFL

Sporting News

The economic principle I’m exploring is Because of scarcity, people choose.

My research question to help me study the economic principle is How do NFL teams success correlate with the amount of money they spend on their roster?

 The article published on ESPN titled “Does spending more money = more wins?” demonstrates this economic principle because it shows the correlation between spending and success across sports, including the NFL.

 First, it is important to understand the differences among leagues and sports. Baseball, for example, does not have a cap and hockey has a very limited cap space. However, this article will argue that the spending money in hockey correlates to success more often than in baseball. The article also argues that the whole “Moneyball” strategy of spending to win still applies, but it is very possible and not too rare to see low budget teams find success through player development, good scouting, and well-done trades.

 Second, the article analyzes the EPL (English Premier League, one of the top soccer leagues in the world that rake in loads of money annually. It is important to analyze even sports and leagues that are very different because it helps us understand why these differences work. In the EPL there is no cap and due to that, it seems that it is pretty consistent on the top teams every year because they generate more money to spend creating a cycle. “If you can’t pay, you can’t compete” is a truism when it comes to English Football, but it is not the same when it comes to American Football.

 Third, this article shows through statistics and studies that there is a weak correlation between spending and winning in the NFL. There is no formula for success because there are so many other variables. “Increasing team payroll by 10 percent yields just a quarter of a win. Spending it on offense nets only 7.9 extra points per season; on defense, it nets 2.2 fewer points allowed.” These statistics show that there isn’t a set way to pay players and who to pay. Although most teams do prioritize certain positions such as QB, LT, LBs, and CBs because they can be more game-changing and crucial it doesn’t mean you will find success. The fact of the matter is the NFL has too many random injuries and players that will develop into superstars randomly to predict who will win. For instance, this last season was considered quite a wild one with teams like the Jaguars and Rams making the playoffs and the Eagles winning the SuperBowl. It sure helps to have money in the NFL but the league is too complicated to ever predict and find guaranteed success.

 In my next blog post, I will synthesize my topic.